By O. Henry Swartzentruber
On election nights, I always enjoy local radio and news with Dewayne Shake, Dave Crooks, and Mike DeCoursey. As the data rolled in Tuesday night, a familiar political pattern emerged—not just in Indiana, but across the rest of the nation. As the national party in power suffers major midterm losses in Congress, Indiana held its ground as a mostly red stronghold. Tuesday night saw a big blue wave nationally, viewed as a rebuke of President Trump. A dramatic shift from 2 short years ago, when Mr. Trump returned from political exile.
We have seen this pattern before, though perhaps not this clear. In 2010 and 2014 (Obama years), Republicans surged nationally, flipping the House (+63) and the Senate (+9). Conversely, 2018 delivered a Democratic "blue wave" (+41) (Trump's first term), while 2022 (under Biden) brought the House back under a Republican majority with a gain of 9 seats. Folks, it is never as good or as bad as it seems. It swings back and forth.
On Election Day morning, my friend Dave Crooks—former Democratic state rep and ex-Daviess County and 8th District chair—messaged Mike and I: "Today is about the failures of a president, corruption, and a lack of focus. Republicans are completely out of touch with most Americans." Seems like he was right. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes. Around the same time, another local Democratic friend sent me an image of a blue wave, prompting me to ask what exactly that meant. Jan Hicks, local R chair, thought Hoosier Democrats would be disappointed that night.
Ultimately, both outlooks held elements of truth. Nationally, Democrats picked up seats in both the House and the Senate. Yet, with some major exceptions, Indiana stayed mostly crimson — Go Hoosiers! Locally Democrats did much better than past cycles, with Beau Bayh (D) winning SOS and picking up a third congressional seat (out of 9) while breaking the GOP supermajority in the House, and they will look to build on the momentum. Trump seems to have overplayed his 2024 hand on Iran, Immigration, Tariffs, et al. "Pretend I am on the ballot," he said...
Anti-Establishment Wave
The establishment's anxiety in this cycle was captured October 30th, 2026 when Elon Musk posted on social media:
"My biggest concern is that if there is a clean sweep by Democrats of the House, Senate and Presidency in 2028, they will: Make DC and Puerto Rico states to gain a strong majority in the Senate. Open the borders and legalize everyone living in America illegally to cement a permanent majority. Increase the size of the Supreme Court to gain an immediate majority. This would result in America becoming a permanent one-party state and the end of democracy in any meaningful sense of the word. All that is needed to ensure this doesn’t happen is 51 Republican senators in 2029. That is why you should vote for Republican senators this election. Other reasons are irrelevant compared to this one."
I shared Elon's opinion. Not that the Republican administration is doing a great job. Look, you can't campaign on one thing (addressing inflation, unpopular wars, or "no new taxes"), and then not do it. But I certainly did not see the widespread blue wave and success of Democrats across the board.
The blue wave nationally was bigger than I expected. Early in the year projections indicated this cycle would be a tough slog for Democrats aiming to flip Senate seats, even with an unpopular Republican incumbent in the White House. Yet Mr. Trump seemingly made it a good night for Democrats. In states the president won by double digits in 2024 had Republican senators up for re-election, including Texas, Kansas, Alaska, and Iowa. States like Ohio, Maine, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia also initially looked favorable for the GOP. Early results show a nearly clean sweep of these races, a total rebuke of Mr. Trump and his short-lived second administration. His handpicked candidates in Texas, South Carolina, and North Carolina, recent crimson red spots themselves, were soundly defeated. Mr. Trump asked voters to treat him like he was on the ballot, and I guess they did.
But two years is a long time in politics. Tuesday night revealed a clear yet uneven national shift—a "blue wave" seemingly powered by an unpopular president plus by 3 Is: persistent Inflation, widespread anti-Incumbent sentiment, and public dissatisfaction with the ongoing conflict in Iran and subsequent fuel prices. Yes, mid-terms typically prove difficult for the party in power, but good policies should temper that wave. Largely, Indiana has the confidence of it's electorate, but nationally, not so much.
Midwest Lessons
Despite national headwinds, broad political patterns stop abruptly at Indiana’s four borders. Ohio returned a Democrat governor and post-JD Vance Senator to the winner's column. To our north in Michigan, the political climate favored Democrats, who benefited from a youthful governor, a youthful sitting senator, and an open seat left by a retiring Democratic senator. Yet Trump had won in Michigan 2 years prior.
In a surprising (to me) turn of events, progressive Democratic State House member Abdul El-Sayed easily won his race against former U.S. Representative Mike Rogers. This even after Sen. Elect El-Sayed's Democrat primary rival, Haley Stevens (D), abruptly crossed party lines to endorse Rogers earlier this week, last second. El-Sayed's success highlights the strength of the national Democrat momentum and perhaps concerns of the broad electorate for a hard left and first time Muslim as US Senator.
Both parties, including Republicans, must pay attention to the electorate and "Do the Right Thing". Example: economic successes while avoiding high profile scandal, graft, and hot-button stupidity. Get back to the basics.
The SOS Race: Engling, Bayh, and Ballard
In the closely watched race for Secretary of State, the final numbers broke clearly for Democrat Beau Bayh 51.7% to Max Engling (42.7%). Independent / Lincoln party candidate Greg Ballard under 4%—the former Republican Mayor of Indianapolis, ultimately did not spoil the party for Engling. Instead it was Trump, and the popularity of the moderate Bayh legacy.
Bayh's new SOS seat became a battleground years ago and unpopular incumbent Diego Morales (R) was defeated by Engling at the state GOP convention earlier this year. Beau's name, Birch Evans Bayh IV, carries historical weight in Indiana politics. Beau’s grandfather, the Birch Bayh, established a Democratic dynasty by serving three terms in the U.S. Senate after defeating long-time incumbent and Daviess Countian Homer Capehart in 1962. Bayh defeated Harbstreit Hill's Capehartin a major political upset in 1962, winning with 50.30% (905,491 votes) to Capehart's 49.70% (894,547 votes). Beau's father, the Evan Bayh, continued his dad's legacy, serving as Indiana’s Secretary of State, Governor, and a two-term U.S. Senator. This race marked Beau’s first political foray, a major success. His win will undoubtedly draw concern from the Indiana GOP.
Indiana Democrats viewed this race as their best opportunity to break their brutal 14-year statewide losing streak. And they were right. They may see a few more successes, with close races pending in other statewide races, and a surprising win in Indiana's red 5th Congressional District for JD Ford over incumbent Victoria Spartz. One note: as Indiana bucked many national trends, Daviess County did as well, voting 66% for Engling, 29% for Bayh.
Daviess Down-Ticket Highlights, B-R Referendum Victory
U.S. 8th District: Republican Mark Messmer defeated Democrat Mary Allen by a comfortable +10 margin.
The Barr-Reeve school referendum narrowly passed 51% to 49%, less than 30 votes.
State House District 63: Republican Amy Kippenbrock secured a victory over local Tiffanie Arthur (D).
State House District 45: Republican Kellie Streeter defeated Peggy Mayfield (D).
State Senate: Republican Jeff Ellington ran unopposed following a bruising primary.
Madison Township Trustee: Shelly Chestnut claimed victory.
Washington Township Trustee: Michelle Showalter Guy won over Rowdy Abbott. The Washington Township Trustee Board was secured by the GOP slate of incumbents.
Countywide Unopposed Races: Sheriff Steve Sturgis (R), Clerk Lauren Milton (R), and Prosecutor Abby Jo McKee-Brown (R, and proud North Daviess alum) all ran unopposed.
Daviess County Council & Commission: Tony Duncheon (R) won a seat as Daviess County Commissioner, replacing the retiring Nathan Gabhart (R). Phil Cornelius (R) won Duncheon's vacated County Council seat, while Kip Kelley (R) secured the Council seat vacated by Mike Myers (R).
Other Townships: Lisa Duncheon (R) took the Barr Township Trustee seat, while Amanda Stoll (R) secured Van Buren Township unopposed.
School Boards: Brad Roark and Roger B. Callahan earned seats on the North Daviess School Board, while incumbents Jody W. Schultheis and Lana Helms won retention for Barr-Reeve Schools.
Local Races: The Pike County Schools referendum failed by a close margin (41% to 59%). Meanwhile, Pike County incumbent Mark Flint defeated a strong challenger to retain his seat as Pike Commissioner.
A State Apart
Perhaps the biggest takeaway of the night is the widening cultural and political divergence between the federal stage and our state. While Indiana remains GOP heavy, every state surrounding us saw Democrat success and blue waves. Even Kentucky’s Democratic governor made the trip to Iowa this cycle to campaign for legislative candidates (Sen-Elect Turek), who was successful in one more state that Trump won by double digits 2 years ago.
It makes you wonder what is in the water in our great state. Even in the anti-establishment, populist mood, Daviess was an anomaly. People everywhere want good, stable government. They care about their familes, their jobs, and the future. They do not like hard-to-explain wars, hard-to-explain taxes on items from other countries, and massive shifts in local or national policy. That does not make the state or nation great again. I am also reminded that Indiana's state legislature was one of the few places to rebuke Mr. Trump on redistricting. Indeed, good policy is good politics. No need to cheat.
Tuesday night was a meaningful Democratic rebound in Congress, and underscores Indiana’s center-right isolation from its neighbors. The nation may be shifting, and Elon’s warnings gave me plenty to ponder, but even in the year of the blue wave, the Hoosier State remains largely Crimson.